Independent research firm
We analyze companies and leave a record
We publish investment theses on listed companies, keep a public portfolio valued with real prices, and explain the judgement behind every decision. Everything behind a conclusion is published alongside it.
The firm, in figures
- Theses published
- 6
- Sectors covered
- 3
- Open positions
- 4
- ROIC on invested capital
- +56.5%
The figures come from the published content and the live portfolio. None of them is written by hand.
Purpose
Why we publish what we think
Most of the financial analysis in circulation arrives as a conclusion: a valuation, a figure, a stance. The reasoning behind it is almost never published, so the reader cannot judge whether the argument holds, nor check afterwards whether it worked.
We publish the full reasoning and leave it dated. That allows two things we consider essential: that anyone can argue with the thesis using the same data we had, and that the passing of time settles who was right.
A conclusion without its reasoning cannot be argued with. And what cannot be argued with cannot be improved either.
Method
How we analyze
Four steps, always in the same order. No thesis is published without going through all of them.
Reading the business
We start by understanding how the company makes money and what would have to happen for it to stop. No financial model yet: first the mechanism, then the numbers.
Checking it against the accounts
We check whether what management says shows up in the financial statements of recent years. We are particularly interested in the line items that do not fit the story.
Setting the horizon
We put in writing the timeframe in which we expect the thesis to resolve and what we would observe along the way if the argument were right.
Exit conditions
Before opening a position we write down which specific facts would make us close it. If we cannot state them, the thesis is not ready.
Commitments
What we stand by and what falls outside
Some rules do not depend on how any thesis turns out, which is exactly why they are written down before we know. Others mark the limits of the service: stating them just as plainly rules out any expectation we could not meet.
What we stand by
The archive is not edited
Published theses are not corrected after the fact. When we change our mind we write it separately, with its date, and the original document remains accessible.
We publish the mistakes too
Theses closed with a poor result stay on the site in the same format as the rest. A track record with the failures removed is not a track record.
No recommendations
We do not say what to buy or at what price. We publish the reasoning and the figures so that every reader reaches their own conclusion.
What we do not do
We do not manage portfolios
We do not manage anyone else's assets and we do not take funds from anyone. The portfolio we publish is a record of our own theses, not a product.
We do not give advice
We do not provide financial advisory services and we do not issue personal recommendations. For that you need an authorized firm.
We do not handle orders
We neither receive nor transmit buy or sell orders, and we do not act as intermediaries with any broker or trading platform.
We do not sell our audience
There is no advertising, no sponsored content and no transfer of data to third parties. The only emails we send are the ones needed for what you paid for to work: access to a thesis you bought, the credentials for a membership, and notice of a new publication.
Warrants & Co. publishes analysis for information and educational purposes. It does not provide portfolio management, financial advisory or order reception and transmission services, and it does not make personal investment recommendations.
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What we publish, in one place
The theses with their full document and a portfolio valued with real market prices. All of it accessible without signing up.
The whole thing, whenever you need it
We publish researched theses on listed companies and track every position in a public portfolio, wins and mistakes alike. Membership opens every thesis published and every one to come.
- Every thesis, with its company, its prices and the full PDF report.
- The complete portfolio, with every entry and every close.
- No lock-in: cancel whenever you like.
From €9.95 a month