How our portfolio has performed
A public track record built thesis by thesis. Every position corresponds to a published thesis, with its argument in plain sight.
Portfolio performance
Live update status: Connecting
Portfolio return
+13.6%
On total capital, cash included.
ROIC on invested capital
+56.6%
On the capital actually deployed in theses, stripping out the effect of cash.
Capital deployed
16.0%
4 open positions · the remaining 84.0% sits in cash and earns no return in the calculation.
“Contribution” is what each position adds to or subtracts from the portfolio return: its weight multiplied by its change. The column adds up to the portfolio return.
Return by period
The portfolio and the S&P 500 are measured over the same window, and the difference is expressed in percentage points. Returns for periods shorter than a year are not annualized: projecting twelve months from 237 days would give an estimate, not a result. Once the track record passes one year, this table will publish the annualized figure too.
Methodology
What the portfolio is made of
The portfolio is exactly the set of published theses. There are no positions without a thesis: if something is in the portfolio, its full report is published and can be downloaded.
Where the data comes from
Symbol, market, sector, date, entry price and target price are read from the company fact sheet that opens each PDF report. They are not transcribed by hand or filled in with estimates.
How positions are weighted
Unless a thesis states a weight of its own, each published thesis deploys 4 % of the portfolio's capital. The rest stays in cash and earns no return in the calculation: no interest is attributed to it.
Portfolio return and ROIC
These are two different figures and should not be confused. The portfolio return measures the result on total capital, cash included: it is what someone replicating the portfolio gains or loses. ROIC measures the result on the capital actually deployed, which is why it is higher while the portfolio is not fully invested. Both are published together so that neither is read as the other.
How performance is calculated
Each position is compared with its own entry price, the one stated in its report. Closed positions keep their realized result and stop fluctuating. We always state what percentage of the portfolio it has been possible to value.
Where prices come from
Quotes and historical series come from Yahoo Finance and may lag the current session, depending on the market. Options and derivatives are not covered by any public source: their price is entered by hand and flagged as such.
When a position is closed
Each position is watched from the date of its report against the target price that report states. On the first session in which the quote touches the target, the position is closed on that date and at that price, not at the session high or at today's price. The close is detected over the full history, so a target reached months ago is recorded on its own day even if the quote has since fallen back.
Targets expressed as a range
When a report sets the target as a range, the position closes at the end that completes the thesis: the high end for a long position and the low end for a short one. The full range stays published in the fact sheet, and the upside announced to the target is measured against that same level, so we never publish one target and close at another.
How it compares with other assets
The chart rebases both the portfolio and every asset it is compared with to 100, from the date of the first position. On its entry date each position is worth what its report states, so the curve starts on the day the thesis was published.
What it does not include
The calculation does not deduct commissions, taxes or brokerage costs, which depend on each broker and on each investor's tax situation. It does not include dividends either.